Advisors' Roundup - November 21, 2014

Here's what on my radar this week:

It turns out predicting the economy is hard:
FiveThirtyEight.com

We've launched a new video channel on YouTube
Compton Advisors L.L.C.'s YouTube Channel is Up and Running

Hammering the point home: Quit Chasing Winners!
The Irrelevant Investor

Why would anyone buy a front-loaded mutual fund?
The Certifiable Planner

And finally . . .

Here's what low-cost mutual funds can do for you:
The Reformed Broker




Advisors' Roundup - November 14, 2014

Here's what's on my mind this week:

Returns the last few years have been great, but what does that mean for the future?
A Wealth of Common Sense

Most women are locking themselves into lower Social Security payouts.
InvestmentNews (Free Registration may be required to see full article)

I got to hear Ronan Ryan, star of Michael Lewis's Flash Boys, speak last week.
Are You Being Flashed?

Genworth recently announced a $345 million hit to earnings from poor Long-Term Care insurance results. Will most likely hasten the trend of LTC premium increases.
Kiplingler
Genworth Investor Relations






Are You Being Flashed?

Well, maybe not you personally.

Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball, The Blind Side, Liar's Poker, and The Big Short has a way of stirring up controversy. That's fine. That sells books. His latest, Flash Boys, is no exception. Lewis made the rounds this spring, most notably on 60 Minutes, telling anyone who'd listen the stock market is rigged by sharks known as High Frequency Traders (HFT).

Not so fast says Ronan Ryan, Chief Strategy Officer at IEX and the subject of Flash Boys.

Ryan, whose firm is dedicated to re-leveling the playing field (the playing field in this case being a number of servers in a data center), stood before a room full of Chartered Financial Analysts at the Sheraton in Clayton, MO last week and explained how predatory trading worked, how he was stopping it, and how it affected trades.

In a nutshell, all trading on all US exchanges and private, brokerage-owned exchanges called dark pools, is done by computers in four data centers in New Jersey. When you (or a mutual fund) puts in a stock trade, your broker's terminal enters an order at one of these exchanges. HFTs let their computers enter the trades for them - it's all algorithms, no mouse clicks. The HFTs have co-located in the same buildings as the exchange's computers (paying the exchanges for the privilege) and thus have a speed advantage.

When a large order comes in, usually the market is not big enough to handle the whole trade at one exchange. Here's where the HFTs come in. They see the partial order hit the nearest exchange (Weehawken in the case of orders coming from NYC) and jump in front of the rest of the order, raising the price of buys or depressing the price of sell orders.

The good news is, for the individual investor their orders are usually small enough to execute all at once so they are not being hurt. The bad news is, if you're investing through mutual funds (or pension funds, or an insurance contract) you probably are. So, in a win for David (sort of), it's only the Goliaths being hurt - unless you're riding on Goliath's back.

IEX has put in place measures to slow down the information flow for these HFTs and is attracting business from the Goliaths. They are the 6th largest exchange/dark pool (out of about 35), but still only captures 1% of trades.




Relaunch

The drawback to running a blog is that initially at least, you have a big Chicken or Egg dilemma: there's no point in putting out content if no one reads it, but no one is going to read a blog that doesn't put out new content. This is compounded in the financial services industry (yeah, I'm an industrialist) because you have to keep copies of everything you write for the regulators (because their view is that, technically, this is marketing).

But this blog has been languishing as a spot to simply post proposed trades as required by our Policies & Procedures and it's about time it started to earn its keep (the trade posts will stay though). At the very least, I'll repost links to helpful articles, but will add my own 2 cents where I think it will help. The information will lean less towards news headlines (Dow up 0.12 today!) - though I will throw out some headlines that are relevant to our projection models - and more towards emerging analysis and thoughtful pieces.

Our initial publishing schedule looks like we're going to have a links round-up on Fridays so you have some time over the weekend to read it, plus random shots of what, if anything, bubbles up during the week.

If this looks like Josh Brown's M.O. you're right, but as they say, the key to success is to find someone who's successful and do what they do. Josh's blog is wonderful and I urge you to follow him (http://thereformedbroker.com/). There will be some overlap, but I'll try to focus on what I think will be helpful and interesting to you. You'll also see a lot of info I'm gleaning from John Mauldin. Both these guys are insightful and prolific as all get out.

BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE!

When we get the bugs worked out, we'll be launching a YouTube channel to get some of the information out to a wider audience. No need to subscribe to that however as we'll embed those videos in blog posts here and, if you can wait until quarter-end, our Advisors' Outlook.

Finally, we'll be adding back our 'Holdings' page to our website so you can see what our Covered Persons (i.e. me) have in the way of family and trust holdings (issues only - not amounts). We'll be relaunching that after the first of the year.